![]() ![]() What we call here a Black Swan (and capitalize it ) is an event with the following three attributes.įirst, it is an outlier, as it lies outside the realm of regular expectations, because nothing in the past can convincingly point to its possibility. I push one step beyond this philosophical-logical question into an empirical reality, and one that has obsessed me since childhood. All you need is one single (and, I am told, quite ugly ) black bird. ![]() One single observation can invalidate a general statement derived from millennia of confirmatory sightings of millions of white swans. It illustrates a severe limitation to our learning from observations or experience and the fragility of our knowledge. ![]() The sighting of the first black swan might have been an interesting surprise for a few ornithologists (and others extremely concerned with the colouring of birds ), but that is not where the significance of the story lies. To give an idea about the content of the work we present the beginning of the Prologue below: Prologue On The Plumage Of Birdsīefore the discovery of Australia, people in the old world were convinced that all swans were white, an unassailable belief as it seemed completely confirmed by empirical evidence. ![]() It has been translated into 31 languages and was named by the Sunday Times as one of the twelve most influential books written since World War II. The book was an incredible success, selling over three million copies. Nassim Nicholas Taleb published The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable in 2007. ![]()
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